Negative

The launch I'd been waiting for, hoping for, happened yesterday. Congratulations. But it's the worst. It's almost 24 hours since launch, and the conversion rate among existing subscribers is about 1.5%. Seven of the ten people who've ordered so far weren't subscribers. The conversion is dismal. The same thing happened at pre-launch so I expected it to some degree, but I didn't know it would be this bad. People say what's the rush, the campaign runs long, you can't know yet, just wait… I don't know. I just feel like it's completely failed.

Even hitting the goal isn't positive. Ten thousand dollars, about 37 units, doesn't even break even. It's a straight loss. At minimum, I need around 70 orders to cover the CE testing costs required for shipping. If I can't, then I'm paying money to sell things. If that's the case, wouldn't failing the funding be better? I don't think orders are suddenly going to surge like a miracle. If that were possible, it'd have happened already. I want to think positively, optimistically, but I haven't slept in days, so it isn't easy. I was anxious precisely because I knew this could happen at launch.

Today I stopped by the test lab for a scan to prepare for CE. That's the worst too. I shouldn't have sold it as a finished product in the first place. I should have gone in a direction where I don't take responsibility for Chinese LEDs. If I'd gone with a kit where the buyer sources and attaches the LED panel themselves, if I'd done that, I'd have no reason for these worries now. If I'd known the finished product would sell this poorly, I'd have just done a kit. I wonder if I should have redesigned for laser cutting instead of 3D printing, too. The printing cost really is excessive.

Regretting like this doesn't improve anything or do any good, but there's nowhere else to let it out, so I'm writing it. From pre-launch through launch prep, I did nothing but work, no playing at all. Recently I've had no time at all, working on the firmware… and tomorrow I'll probably have to do it again. And for the sake of those numbers, now turned to nothing, I'd already changed my circumstances to carry this on as a business. I'm taking a leave of absence because I have no confidence I can do both, and now the very first button is misaligned, so I don't know what's right. I expected it might go badly, but I didn't know it would be this bad.

I have to write the weekly update posts for Crowd Supply. Looking at other campaigns, they're all hopeful and positive, and writing that way is what converts. What should I write? "We launched and it's below expectations and I'm struggling," that kind of writing belongs here. Writing that where buyers and prospective buyers can see it is genuinely foolish. Buying sympathy won't improve the situation, so I'll have to fill it with Patternflow's features and whatever good things there are… hopeful content. It isn't that there's nothing to write. But the one writing it is me, and I have no confidence I can do it well in this rotten mood.

The firmware also needs its structure torn up and rebuilt. What's different from before is that it's preparation for extension, and to let other people build easily. And I want things a bit easier for myself. Here's the background. When someone adds a feature to the firmware and proposes it, I accept almost all of it. It looks good, and I can't say no when they've put in that much time and energy. Even for genuinely good features, struggling to fully understand and control them and integrate them into the main system is hard. They say AI does it for you, but naturally it takes time and energy, and ultimately the psychological burden is too heavy. I have to fully understand the feature they built, use it myself, give feedback on it, and the features people will propose in the future naturally become another burden.

So I'm thinking of just making the main system into a template that anything can be attached to. This is Simone's idea too. He watched me struggling to integrate his version and wearing down in the process, and suggested it. I think it has to be done and I'm grateful, but what nags at me is that it means pulling his features, the ones I'd integrated, out of the main. On top of that, I have to tell other people this and ask them to make and manage their own repos. It's an uncomfortable and difficult thing right now, but long term it's clearly the better road. Good for me, and the people building their own versions can do it more freely and easily.

I also have to promote the funding more seriously. And especially in a way that fits Patternflow's product characteristics. Product characteristics? What kind of product is this? They asked me at the test lab today too, what it's for. It's what I hear everywhere I go. Every time, all I can say is that you just play with it. That's essentially all it is… should I package it better somehow? Educational? Saying "art" won't mean anything from their side. I don't know. For now, Patternflow's biggest strength is that it catches the eye. That's why a lot of people saw a video that went viral on Instagram, got hooked, and hit subscribe. That's also the cause of the conversion rate not turning into actual purchases. But it also means that if the content is made well, it's a product that easily hooks people into buying on the spot.

As it happens, I now have 5 million won that can go toward making promotional content. It's the pre-founder program grant from the Korea Arts Management Service I mentioned before. It's a shame it can't be used for production costs or electronics regulatory testing, but if I pour it all into content and grow the funding amount itself, I can get a similar effect. What might make this even better is that it goes in the direction of leaving an official number proving people's demand? There's no other way but to go this route. Stopping the funding and relaunching in the form I mentioned earlier is hard, too. They said a professional mentor comes with it, so let me use that as well as I can.

Whether the situation is bad or rotten or infuriating or hard right now, I don't care. I'll at least flail around trying to make it work somehow. But I'd really like to sleep well. Yesterday I only slept five hours from launch anxiety, and today I was worn out going to the test lab in the blazing sun. Exhausted, I lay down around ten, woke at one, couldn't get back to sleep, and so here I am writing.